Ace Bailey Dropping In NBA Mock Drafts As Durant Trade Talk Heats

With the captivating NBA Finals series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers nearing completion, the league’s attention soon will turn to the newest talent wave.

The NBA Draft will be held June 25-26 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., with the first round June 25 and the second round the next day.

There is no suspense at the very top — Dallas is certain to take Duke freshman forward Cooper Flagg after lucking into the No. 1 overall pick. The Mavericks won the May 12 draft lottery despite a 1.8 percent chance, and the chances they do not select Flagg are less.

More intrigue surrounds the possible trades of big-name targets Phoenix forward Kevin Durant and Milwaukee forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, each of whom has a year remaining on his contract.

Monster trades notwithstanding, the top of the first round also appears to be in flux as Rutgers guard Ace Bailey — once the consensus No. 2 choice — has dropped in recent mock drafts.

Will Durant, Antetokounmpo Stay or Go?

As sure as Flagg is the No. 1 pick, Durant will be traded by the Suns at some point in the offseason. They mishandled their attempt to move him to the Golden State Warriors at the 2025 trade deadline by not including him in the process, fracturing the relationship and ensuring a breakup.

Antetokounmpo’s move much less certain. He has said he is amenable to a trade, although the Bucks could look to build around him to make another championship run similar to 2021.

Durant’s preferred destinations are San Antonio, Houston and Miami, according to reports, but while discussions have been held, nothing has bubbled to the surface. Minnesota and New York also are said to be in the hunt, with the Timberwolves making a strong play.

Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, is said to be enamored of Durant’s game. He told M6 Info that he spoke to Durant after the gold medal game at the 2024 Olympics in Paris and told him, “I wanted to learn from him and perhaps steal one or two of his secret techniques.”

At the same time, the Spurs — who have the No. 2 and No. 14 picks in the draft — appear less likely to add Durant, 36, at the cost of the No. 2 pick than to continue their building process around young players Wembanyama and 2025 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle.

Durant will make $54.7 million next season and is eligible to sign a two-year, $122 million contract extension on July 6. Six months after any trade, the extension would be worth $124 million.

Durant would be an upgrade for whatever team acquires him, but the Spurs most need backcourt help, and Rutgers guard Dylan Harper would address that need at No. 2. Harper’s father Ron was a 15-year NBA vet.

Is Ace Bailey Becoming Shedeur Sanders?

Bailey had strong numbers at Rutgers — 17.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists with 1.3 blocks and 1.0 steal per game — but his offseason interactions have left potential suitors wondering.

Sanders, who was projected to be a top five choice in the 2025 NFL draft, was reported to have turned off NFL teams during the pre-draft period before dropping to the Cleveland Browns in the fifth round. Bailey will not fall that far.

“NBA executives say Bailey has been polarizing in internal front office conversations because of questions about his feel for the game and lack of polish, creating a wider draft range than initially anticipated,” ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony reported Monday.

“The feedback from his interviews at the draft combine in Chicago was not all that positive, with some teams expressing concern about his lack of preparation and focus.”

Bailey was measured at 6-7 1-2 at the NBA Draft Combine, not the 6-10 listed by Rutgers. He is scheduled to work out for Philadelphia next week, but he has declined other invitations from teams at the top of the draft, ESPN reported.

Bailey had a 3.5 plus-minus ranking last year in the Bart Torvik system, one of the statistical sets used by the NCAA tournament selection committee to pick the field of 68.

The only players to finish with a BPM below 4.0 while in college who were picked in the top 10 of the NBA Draft are Ziaire Williams, Jaylen Brown, Cody Williams, Cam Reddish, and Austin Rivers, and only Brown has distinguished himself.

Reassembling The Top 10 in the Draft

While Harper has gained traction as the No. 2 overall pick, Bailey’s drop has created more speculation with rest of the top 10.

Baylor guard V.J. Edgecombe, Duke forward Kon Knueppel, Texas guard Tre Johnson, Oklahoma guard Jeremiah Fears and Duke center Khaman Maluach — all freshmen — are in the mix with Bailey from 3-9.

Edgecombe appears to be “the leader in the clubhouse” to be the No. 3 overall pick to Philadelphia, Givony said.

German forward Noa Essengue is considered the top player from outside the U.s. and is likely to be in the group after leading Ratiopharm Ulm into the Bundesliga Finals that begin Monday.

Team fits could determine the exact order.