Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be 2.5% in 2026: estimates

Millions of Social Security beneficiaries received a 2.5% boost to their benefits in 2025, thanks to an annual cost-of-living adjustment that went into effect in January.

In 2026, Social Security checks may go up by the same amount — 2.5% — based on the latest government inflation data, according to new estimates from both The Senior Citizens League and Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst.

That is up from the 2.4% increase for 2026 that those sources forecast last month. A 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment would be “about average,” according to Johnson.

The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, is an annual adjustment to benefits aimed at helping to ensure monthly checks keep pace with inflation.

The COLA for the following year is calculated based on third quarter inflation data. The official change is typically announced by the Social Security Administration in October.

With four more months of data yet to come before that calculation, the new estimate for the Social Security COLA for 2026 is subject to change.

The COLA may go higher if President Donald Trump’s tariff policies prompt inflation and consumer prices move higher, according to Johnson.

Broadly, the consumer price index rose less than had been expected in May, with an annual inflation rate of 2.4%, showing limited impact from Trump’s tariff policies.

The measure used to calculate the Social Security COLA — the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W — is up 2.2% over the past 12 months, according to the May data.

While that inflation rate is lower than the 2.5% COLA for 2025, a Senior Citizens League survey finds 80% of seniors feel inflation in 2024 was more than 3% based on their expenses.

As the Trump administration has reduced the size of the federal work force, that has also led to changes in the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics assesses inflation. The government agency has restricted data collection and turned to models that help fill in incomplete data.

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The Senior Citizens League has raised concerns that those changes may negatively influence the accuracy of the annual Social Security COLA calculations.

“Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement,” Shannon Benton, executive director at The Senior Citizens League, said in a statement.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.